Central Bankers, Services PMIs, and UK Inflation in Focus This week
Central Bankers, Services PMIs, and UK Inflation in Focus This week
Key Points:
Investor wagers on a September Fed rate cut will be influenced by US Services PMIs, the Minutes of the FOMC Meeting, and Fed commentary Investor anticipation of a Bank of England interest rate cut in June could be influenced by UK retail sales and inflation figures. The trajectory of the Bank of Japan’s interest rates will be influenced by Japanese economic indicators.
The US Dollar On Wednesday, May 22, data from the US housing sector will draw investors’ attention to the US economy. The Fed’s primary concern is housing sector inflation, which could be fueled by improved market conditions.
Investors should pay attention to the preliminary private sector PMI and US jobless claims numbers on Thursday (May 23). The US dollar may be affected more by the Services PMI. Investor anticipation of a Fed rate cut could rise in the event of a contraction in the US services sector.
Buyer demand for the EUR/USD will be influenced by German producer price data for April on Monday, May 20. The ECB’s decision to cut interest rates in June could be bolstered by falling producer prices, which may indicate a softer demand environment.
The Eurozone’s economy is expected to grow in H2 2024, according to economists. A more optimistic outlook may be supported by positive trade data.
Investors should pay attention to the preliminary May PMI numbers for the private sector on Thursday (May 23). Prices, new orders, and employment are all sub-components that investors should take into account. The German economy will be the focus of attention on Friday, May 24, with Q1 2024 GDP numbers likely to influence buyer demand for the EUR.
Investors should keep an eye on the ECB’s talk beyond the numbers. On Wednesday, May 22, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak.
The outlook for the economy, inflation, and the path of interest rates after June all have the potential to move the dial.
UK retail sales will be the focus on Friday. A weaker outlook for demand-driven inflation could be indicated by a decline in retail sales.
On Tuesday, May 21, and Thursday, May 23, Governor Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England is scheduled to give a speech. Ben Broadbent (Monday) and Sarah Breeden (Wednesday), members of the Monetary Policy Committee, are scheduled to speak. The dial would move in response to the most recent GDP, inflation, and Services PMI numbers.
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